Russian Manoeuvers Keep The West Guessing

Nato has been watching Russian exercises and deployments since the out set of the crisis , U.S. sources indicate that some 20,000 Russian troops have been exercising on the Ukrainian's Eastern borders Nato commander , General Phillip Breedlove , believes that these are " of sufficent size to pose a potential threat" , not just , he says , to Ukraine but potentially to Moldova as well

There are a little over 1,000 Russian troops there , ostensibly as a peacekeeping force , it is not clear quite what General Breedlove meant , but it seems unikely that he expected Russian forces to advance across the whole of Ukraine to Moldova

Military men have to look at both capabilities and intentions , the Western military  view is that primed by recent exercises , Russia has gathered sufficent forces at laest for an initial thrust into Eastern Ukraine

For now , Russian spokesmen in Moscow insist  that this is not their intention , but they said much the same a few weeks ago about Crimea

At the strategic political level , it seems that the West has greatly underestimated or failed to understand fully the great sense of national humiliation felt by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his circle , at the collapse of the Soviet Union , the apparent humbling of Russia , his frustration at watching more than a decade of Western military involvements overseas was frequently ignored

As of today , he may indeed have no desire to move into Eastern Ukraine , but  what if Pro Russian elements confront Ukrainian security forces? what if shots are exchanged and lives are lost?

Will Putin then simply be reacting to the pace of events on the ground?