Apr. 17, 2014

Europe Moves Softly Softly On Ukraine

Pro Russian militia's , most of them armed , have seized buildings in nine Eastern and Southern Ukrainian towns , four town halls have been occupied , as have two police stations and two Ukrainian security service (SBU) buildings and the regional Admin. H.Q. in Donetsk , the territorial integrity of Ukraine has already been weakened

The U.S. , Nato and most European leaders believe these actions are being supported by Russia with the intention of destabilising Ukraine, even the German government , which has been ambivalent about exerting pressure on the Kremlin , has concluded that "there are alot of signs that armed gangs in Eastern Ukraine are getting support from Russia" , that was the background to the meeting of Europe's Foreign Ministers

In the event they agreed to the list of 18 Russian and Crimean officials who are subject to travel restrictions and an asset freeze , a sign of caution of Europe's ministers is that we don't yet know how many more Russian officials will be subject to these sanctions , that will be worked out Tuesday

As regards to deeper economic sanctions , Europe is  still "completing the work" on what are called phase three sanctions , for further E.U. sanctions to be imposed there has to be unanimity which shall be difficult to achieve

It is just possiable that if the meeting in Geneva on Thursday , involving the U.S. Russia the E.U. and Ukraine is unnsuccessful , then the E.U. will hold an emergency summit next         week to discussmoving to phase three and economic sanctions , but there are significant diffrences between the E.U.'s 28 nation states

There are those who believe Russia will only listen to a resolute and determined E.U. , the U.K, Foreign Secretary , William Hague , said " further sanctions have to be the response to Russia's behavior"

The Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said "if they ( the Russians) escalate , then I think we should escalate" President Francois Hollande told President Barrak Obama that France favoured "firm but graduated sanctions"

But the Dutch Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans , said it was  "too early to impose more sanctions" , Spain and Italy are both very cautious about strennnnngthening sanctions , what  remains unclear is , what would trigger Europe moving to phase three and econimic sanctions , it's hesitancy is clear for Moscow to see

Some are suggesting that Thursday is a last chance for Russia to de escalate the crisis and put back the 40,000 troops it has on the Ukrainian border

But there are now new facts on the ground: towns effectively occupied by Pro Russian militia's who are determined to hold referendums on whether to separate and join Russia

For Europe its a defining moment , whether they can find the unity and resolve to stand against borders being re drawn by force